Interesting analysis in today’s Sydney Morning Herald:

“A rejuvenated One Nation threatens to swing the state election away from the Coalition government, with NSW leader Mark Latham pitching his party as the new voice of the bush.

“Exclusive Herald polling revealed One Nation has a primary vote of 7.5 per cent statewide, while internal Coalition research indicates minor parties could secure as much as 20 per cent of the primary vote in some seats. One Nation alone is polling in the “low double digits” in some areas.

“The Coalition needs to lose just six seats before it is plunged into minority government – a real possibility given it is defending six seats on margins of 3.2 per cent and under. Four of these seats are held by National MPs, making them particularly vulnerable to Mr Latham’s rural push.

“There is huge potential for minority government,” one Liberal source said.
In a clear pitch to disaffected country voters, Mr Latham, who is vying for a seat in the NSW upper house, described his party as an alternative “for people neglected by the Sydney-centric major parties”.

“After huge swings in the Orange and Wagga Wagga by-elections, it is clear country people feel neglected by the Berejiklian Government,” Mr Latham, who became leader of NSW One Nation last month, said.

While One Nation is not expected to win any lower house seats, the government fears the party will wreak havoc in regional areas by cannibalising the National Party’s primary vote and exposing even safe seats to the threat of a strong challenger.

“All National seats are under threat from One Nation and the Shooters, but the best they can deliver is Labor or an independent,” a government source said. “The biggest threat in the world for us is a strong independent.”
One Nation would not confirm how many seats it planned to contest at the March election, with a spokeswoman noting only that the party was “currently in the process of preselection across the whole state”…

Read the full article here.

You can read more about NSW One Nation policies here >>